The Canadian dollar's recent decline to its lowest level in almost two years against the US dollar is primarily attributed to several factors, including worsening economic outlook, rising inflation concerns, and diverging monetary policies between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada.



1. Inflation Concerns: The persistently high inflation in the United States has raised expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. This anticipation of higher interest rates in the US has led to a flight to safety, with investors favoring the US dollar over other currencies, including the Canadian dollar.
2. Diverging Monetary Policies: The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate significantly, possibly reaching as high as 4 or 5 percent, whereas the Bank of Canada may not be able to match such aggressive rate hikes due to concerns about the impact on the housing market and consumer spending. This disparity in monetary policy paths between the two central banks is widening the gap between the US dollar and the Canadian dollar.
3. Commodity Prices: The Canadian dollar is also influenced by commodity prices, particularly oil, as Canada is a major oil exporter. The recent decline in oil prices, coupled with softness in other commodity prices, has further weighed on the Canadian dollar's performance.
4. Market Sentiment: Market sentiment plays a crucial role in currency movements. The prevailing perception among investors is that the US dollar is a safer haven during times of uncertainty, leading to increased demand for the US dollar and consequent weakness in the Canadian dollar.
5. Expectations for Future Performance: Some analysts predict further depreciation of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar in the near term, with projections of the loonie falling below 73 cents by the end of the year. This outlook reflects concerns about the Canadian economy's relative weakness compared to the US economy.

Overall, the combination of inflation worries, diverging monetary policies, commodity price movements, and market sentiment has contributed to the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, with implications for Canada's economic outlook and trade competitiveness.

Source: https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canadian-dollar-1.6585291