The Canadian dollar's recent decline to its lowest level in almost two years against the US dollar is primarily attributed to several factors, including worsening economic outlook, rising inflation concerns, and diverging monetary policies between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada.
- Inflation Concerns: The persistently high inflation in the United States has raised expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. This anticipation of higher interest rates in the US has led to a flight to safety, with investors favoring the US dollar over other currencies, including the Canadian dollar.
- Diverging Monetary Policies: The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate significantly, possibly reaching as high as 4 or 5 percent, whereas the Bank of Canada may not be able to match such aggressive rate hikes due to concerns about the impact on the housing market and consumer spending. This disparity in monetary policy paths between the two central banks is widening the gap between the US dollar and the Canadian dollar.
- Commodity Prices: The Canadian dollar is also influenced by commodity prices, particularly oil, as Canada is a major oil exporter. The recent decline in oil prices, coupled with softness in other commodity prices, has further weighed on the Canadian dollar's performance.
- Market Sentiment: Market sentiment plays a crucial role in currency movements. The prevailing perception among investors is that the US dollar is a safer haven during times of uncertainty, leading to increased demand for the US dollar and consequent weakness in the Canadian dollar.
- Expectations for Future Performance: Some analysts predict further depreciation of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar in the near term, with projections of the loonie falling below 73 cents by the end of the year. This outlook reflects concerns about the Canadian economy's relative weakness compared to the US economy.
Overall, the combination of inflation worries, diverging monetary policies, commodity price movements, and market sentiment has contributed to the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, with implications for Canada's economic outlook and trade competitiveness.
Source: https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canadian-dollar-1.6585291
iA Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. iA Private Wealth is a trademark and a business name under which iA Private Wealth Inc. operates.
This is not an official website or publication of iA Private Wealth and the information and opinions contained herein do not necessarily reflect the opinion of iA Private Wealth. The particulars contained on this website were obtained from various sources which are believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by iA Private Wealth, its affiliates, employees, agents or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Furthermore, this website is provided for information purposes only and is not construed as an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of securities. The information contained herein may not apply to all types of investors. The Investment Advisor can open accounts only in the provinces where they are registered.
Products and services provided by third parties, including by way of referral, are fully independent of those provided by iA Private Wealth Inc. Products offered directly through iA Private Wealth Inc. are covered by the Canadian Investor Protection Fund, subject to exception. iA Private Wealth Inc. does not warrant the quality, reliability or accuracy of the products or services of third parties. Please speak to your advisor if you have any questions.
Proudly built and managed by Sommer Digital Inc.